posted another nice leg up again today and it surely is not from domestic demand. This has me thinking that the seasonality low IS now in place and it has come quite early. The last H&P Report indicated that the kill rate may taper off a little after Thanksgiving so if there is a mild softening of the kill rate and an associated increase in export demand, there could be a long, steady move up to get us to the next seasonality high.

You are absolutely correct that the ASF problem in China is old news. It first surfaced more than a year ago. The problem is that it is going to take the Chinese quite a while to fix their problem. Their loss of the backyard producers is not a quick fix. Facilities must be built for more bio-secure production, gilts brought, in etc, etc. To be sure, they will eat more chicken and fish and beef and beans but already the pork in China is three times the price in the U.S.A.

My bias is that before we start counting down for the next Hog Cycle trough, we have to get to the next Hog Cycle crest. We may not see a crest equal to the last one at 134 but world pork supply/demand factors make me think it will be higher than the 93 level "The Market" is currently projecting for the summer of 2020 but I am NOT betting the farm on it but I probably should.

Best wishes,

Doc.