that might make the 11 point "Gap" something to not brush off too lightly. One year ago the JJJs were premium to the index by five bucks and today they discounted by eleven. Historicals don't set prices. It is demand and supply here and now that matters. My estimate is that packers produced 2,212 cars of pork today and we have a report of the price at which they sold 246 of them. We are blind relative to the price they received for the other 1,966. My guess is that packers have a bunch of forward-priced deals going and there may be enough of them that it is encouraging the packers to finish their hogs to heavier weights so they will have enough pork to meet these forward priced contracts.

I'm going to respect that "Gap" and not get very short for a while; rather I will be content to work a few calendar spreads, do a little day trading and let this thing declare itself for a while. When we get a bit closer to cash settlement, maybe my Hog Pricing Model will click in and become its usual useful trading too. It is not much help this far in front of cash settlement.

Best wishes,

dhm