MURICO.com Forum

Hogs by Jerry Welch
In Response To: This does not look good------ ()

A few days ago on Inside Futures I posted an article entitled, "Pork Demand Slips Compared to Beef Demand" Since composing that article, hog futures have tumbled badly. And today, front month April hogs were down 260 points. By any measure, the day was a wreck.

However, after the close, pork carcass fell $4.30, a further loss of $2.82 from the morning. More bearish yet was cash bellies that simply collapsed showing a loss of $24.54. I cannot recall ever, ever seeing cash bellies drop so severely in face of no news. But they did.

I do recall the last time I saw pork carcass drop more than $4.00 in one day was back in the Fall of 2015. The opening trade for hog futures the next day was 150 lower and that was high tick for the session. And as pork demand weakened further, the oinker market simply became unglued. Big time I might add!

I am not suggesting that hog futures will open 150 lower and drop like the proverbial rock tomorrow or in the days and weeks ahead. But based on how rapidly pork demand is collapsing such a scenario cannot be ruled out. For tomorrow, the bulls are going to be pressed and pressed hard.

Also keep in mind the infamous funds are a big long in the hog futures market. If prices keep moving lower they will liquidate long positions. And here is the rub. Once long positions are liquidated, they will quickly turn to the sell side of the ledger to establish new short positions.

Congratulations Itz on your fishing trip! Jerry's thoughts on hogs are similar to mine. Nobody has been saying anything yet but they will - The elephant in the room here is Trump & Mexico with a lot more to happen I believe!!
Dewey

Messages In This Thread

This does not look good------
Hogs by Jerry Welch
Re: Dewey, I'm just glad----
Re: Hogs by Jerry Welch
Thanks for your post Spike,
Re: Well Spike, that 62.50-------
Packers kept their bids quite firm today and - -