10/6//15 was up +$0.33 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on yesterday's kill will be up between +0.20 and +0.50. This up-trend has continued for about two weeks now and that is in harmony with the usual seasonality pattern that we generally see following the post-Labor day slump. There is a strong tendency for the CME Index to stay firm until the VVVs go to cash settlement.

Yesterday when the V/Z spread crashed and burned, I covered most of those short spreads. I still have have a few left on deck but my boat would be riding quite high in the water if it were not for the money I'm carrying back to the bank. Well, it's really not that much but it doesn't take much to make me happy. It's just that an old man like me needs something to do and trading hogs seems to be something I can still do. Like ITZ, I like the chase.

My bias is that the up-trend of the VVVs is going to continue - - - in fact demand seems to be firm enough to push most contracts up a little so I am mildly long and just added another long VVV @ 73.825. I had more orders working down from that point but the other traders wouldn't take them there.

The V/Z spread still seems too wide. That's why I'm hanging onto a few shorts. I will sell more if we get a bounce above 7.25. I'm now looking at the G/J spread. On average over the past twelve years it has expired at -2.975. I like the short side a bit better than the long so I sold one this morning at -3.075 and have orders to sell more on a spike.

Best wishes,

dhm