to successful trading than just the Fundamentals and the Technicals and that's why this Game is so difficult to be a consistent winner or keep from being Stripped Buck Naked. SBN can happen in a matter of days, I speak from my own experience and 15 years as a broker watching stubborn traders not heeding my warnings that they are about to be pushed off the cliff.

Fundamentals change with the passage of Time and Technicals are the gauge telling traders the Fundamentals are still valid this day or this week. Next week is a ?? but when the Technicals start to fade the Fundamentals, the caution flags go out that the Fundamentals could be changing. As a trader with your money on the line, you better respect what the Technicals are telling you before you realize too late that you have been pushed over the cliff. There's too many commentators that only have their Inflated Ego's supporting their commentaries based on what the market is saying today.

I'm not a professional commentator, that's not what I get paid for. I'm just a broker/trader that does make comments on market activity, looking at all possibilities concerning market direction today, tomorrow and next week based on what the Technicals are suggesting for the alignment with current Fundamentals. I am highly aware that the good Fundamentals can quickly turn sour but the technicals will give me a heads up before the Fundamentals make their sour statement. It's too late to keep your shirt and pants on when the Fundamentals make that sour statement. This is a Game that wants to take all your hard earned money. I play the Game to grow my Bank Account and my job as a broker is to grow my clients Bank Accounts. I can't do that if I allow them to get Stripped Buck Naked. That has happened and will continue to happen due to their own stubborn choices. I can control my own choices but with some it's a lost cause. Some peoples Kids, I give them books and all they do is Tear Out the Pages!

I don't know why I stepped up on this soap box but need to get off. I just wanted to make a couple comments on the habits of the cattle market. I favor the Oct contract to have the honors of putting in the Top of the Mountain for this Bull Market. However, all markets go Up and go Down in the process of finding the HIGH. There's a lot of profits to put in your own pocket if you can navigate the Up and Down movement successfully. The cattle market dances the 2 step in the process of climbing the stairs higher. Two steps up and then one back down, two steps back up then another back down as it climbs. In a Bull Market it's the front month that says this is the TOP and that's all there is. We don't know that until the next front month fails to get the retag. If Oct is going to TOP OFF the cattle market which the Fundamentals suggest we have to wait until Oct is front month before we can expect a retag or higher than what April gives us. The reason I expect June the next front month in line to have a big set back is due to the seasonality factors making the June contract the Whipping Boy of the cattle market each year. June always takes a drop and in bear market years it is a $20 drop.

Digging a hole that deep is not in the cards this year but an 8 to 10 dollar drop is in line to happen. The cattle market also has a 5-6 month rotation for major cycle low corrections. June had a 5 month rotation low the last days of Sept with early Oct as the scheduled low. The next 5/6 month rotation was due in late March which we had and being in a Bull Market April needed to put in new contract highs to confirm the Bull Market in progress. We now have the 2 steps up qualifier for new highs but we also have a correction for the 1 step back down due in early May for the June contract and because of the seasonal weakness for the June contract being the Whipping Boy an attempted retest of the previous 154.37 low will probably come close to getting tested. June currently has a pivot point set @ 160.10 that if taken out, will produce additional backfill to at least retag 157.00 potential support. I expect that to happen, so why wouldn't I put some short June on at this 163-164 area to protect my profits in April longs. The cycles turn negative after April 20th and if June digs a 7-10 dollar hole Oct will have a deeper than expected backfill also. Why give it all back when you can protect your profits with a spread of short June. It's a long time before Oct is front month. I will be buying Oct after we see how hard the Whipping Boy gets whipped into mid May.