12/10/14 was down -$0.34 and the model projects that the change in the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 12/10/14 kill will down between -0.05 and -0.35. Packers have been mostly bidding steady for hogs since Thanksgiving with a range of a penny up to a penny down. This means they have an inventory of hogs purchased at prices that are all over the place. So this is the model's best estimate of where the component will fall on yesterday's kill.
Usually when we are this close to cash settlement the model makes a projected cash settlement. This time around I am just not comfortable with the data being reliable to make a projection. I do have some short Z/G spreads that took a blistering yesterday. They will probably leave me with a bunch of long GGGs when the ZZZs expiire tomorrow. ITZ told me I was at risk of the ZZZs tacking on a few points going to cash settlement.
Dewey and I think there is a chance that the GGGs will show a little strength as we move toward the holidays. Sometimes we are right and other times we are not.
I'm now waiting for the Feb cattle/hog spread to punch above 80.00 so I can sell again.