maybe a dumb question but I've been asking them all of my life so it doesn't bother me to show up on the lower level of the intelligence curve. What or Who is Socrates? Anyway, I also have a 4 or 5 year rally cycle due this year just in front of a major bear market that is also due this year. The bear market jumped the gun on 4 year rally cycle. Covid 19 gave bear a head start then oil turned the corn market into a bear feast. There is usually a cycle low in April but circumstances gave the power to the bear and also ruined my plans for my weather market 3.30 July corn longs. There is not enough time to do much good for July, so I switch to Sept at some point for a counter seasonal rally.
I don't Texas Hedge my clients but I do take opportunities to reown sold bushels. Which is kind of like a Texas Hedge but not a pure spec type of trade. I use calculated reasons for reowning bushels during seasonal timeframes that favor some sort of rally such as Weather Market Season. At the same time I'm very aggressive with spreads, having shorts against my longs gives me an opportunity to bank some profits from both sides when the market goes into a Sideways Shuffle. I've actually banked better profits for guys from extended Sideways Shuffles than I have from most of the pathetic 30-40 cent rallies. The Spreads have also saved my butt many times when I have made the wrong guess. Just recently I was guessing 3.30-3.32 was the place to be long July corn for the Weather Market rally. I had even started testing the waters at 3.40 but I put short May against them and added more short May when I bot the 3.30-3.32 choice. The Oil market destroyed the corn market but my spreads allowed me to bank a good profit on May shorts. Now I'm waiting on July retagging 3.30 to turn loose of my wrong choice long July, dealing with a lot of frustration in the process.
I'm still waiting for and expecting a decent rally for the corn market that due in 2020. It may not happen until the 4th quarter or possible wait until early 2021. Farmers have an addiction to selling 50-70% of their crop in the bottom 30% of the range. They won't sell rallies out of greed but they beg to sell at the bottom 30% out of Fear. When the market get 50% or more out of farmers hands then it will be ready to go up with a decent 60-80 cent rally off the low, maybe even 1.00.
I clear through RJ Obrien but we did clear through MF Global when that bad situation happened. No, I don't want to go through that again, I lost 2/3 of my clients due to that.