11-21-14 was DOWN -0.06 to 88.75. Relative to the projection from the Hog Pricing Model, that was an "Industrial Strength" surprise!
Packers really opted to kill a bunch of the cheaper hogs they had purchased. There is a possibility that the still have some more expensive hogs purchased that will show up later and give the component a boost.

The six-day moving average carcass weight moved up mildly to 215.78#. That is the third consecutive "UP" day and it puts the weight +3.11# Yr/Yr.

The kill since 9/1/14 is trailing the projection from the H&P report by 247K. In addition the liquidation of heavies may have added 400K to the kill. If the inventory of market hogs reported in the 9-1-14 H&P report was correct, then producers have a lot of hogs that will begin showing up at the packing plants.

It is going to be interesting going forward.

Best wishes,

dhm