8/2/19 was down -0.77 and the model projects the component on Friday's kill will be in the range of unchanged to +0.30. There may be enough expensive hogs in he pipeline to keep the component stable but we are headed lower. Maybe lots lower if the trade war does not ease up.

Friday packers purchased 102.0% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 80.4%. Usually Friday purchases are in the 120% range. It appears that packers don't want more pork to have to sell.

Being long the 2020 futures is becoming mighty uncomfortable and I may have to take my lumps and put the idea of big exports to China out of my mind for a while.

Best wishes,

Doc