I've ever experienced the feeling that my workload was over extended but that's a good thing------more dollars in my pocket. I'm past the busy time, so maybe I'll be able to do some Fishing. The last two months I really didn't have any urge to trade the hogs. Not that I didn't want to. I saw many fishing opportunities show up but by the time I had taken care of my responsibilities, the dinner bell had already rang and the train had already left the station.

The consistent hog market reversal during July is starting to set the Launching Pad parameters. I have no idea how long it takes to build the Launching Pad-----but I will be ready for this one. The month of July reversal is a consistent trading opportunity to prepare for. Whenever the hog market goes into a 4-5 week directional move into the first week of July-----it sets up a powerful reversal to happen when July expires. If the direction is up, it will bring on a strong reversal down. If the direction has been down such as the current trend has been------prepare for the Reversal Launch as July expires.

I have seen it take as long as Aug first to actually Launch. The hog market getting beat down in a strong 4-5 week downtrend is counter seasonal, only happens about 2 years out of 10. Similar to my 80/20 cycle rotations, 80% are predictably correct and 20% are failures------the seasonal long position for summer hogs is correct 80% of the time and 20% of the time long is wrong. This sets the stage for a counter seasonal play for the hog contract Whipping Boy (Oct hogs) the Aug contract also benefits from the counter seasonal play depending on whether the Launch is early or waits until Aug 1st for the expiration trade. I will be watching for fishing hole opportunities for Oct hogs------20% of the time, 2 years out of 10 the Oct contract will have a strong counter seasonal move. I'm betting this will be one of those years. The strongest clue that this will be one of those years------Oct likes to mimic what the April contract does-------April certainly had a powerful Launch------so I expect likewise for Oct.

I don't care how many valuable qualifying clues that give a high % potential for certain things to happen------you still need to manage your risk with Damage Control.