3/5/19 was down-0.30 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.15 and -0.45. The JJJs settled premium to the component of +6.03. It strikes me that the "Gap" is a bit wide this close to going to cash settlement in light of the high kill rate and weak cutouts.
Packers purchased 83.6% of the moving average total hogs and 91.9% on the index hogs. So far this week the kill is coming in on the strong side of expectations. Historically the kill almost always falls as we move toward Independence day and that is far into the future.