12/7/18 was UP +0.33 to 56.25. The ZZZs are now trading discount to the component by -1.75. There will be five more days of data to get us to cash settlement.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 214.39#. That is -1.13# year/year. Index hogs were also a bit heavier but still lighter than the total hogs at 213.75#. Packer hogs are heavier than the non-packer hogs by +2.72#.

The kill mix continues to be loaded with packer hogs. With packer hogs being heavier than the non-packer hogs, the bottom line is that packers are producing a significantly higher percentage of the pork now than they were at this point in time one-year ago. I am doubtful that some of the marginal producers of negotiated hogs will be able to stay in the business and it a just might be that packers are positioning themselves to increase production to make up for that production loss, I don't see any thing to suggest that packers are trying to force the marginal producers out of business; it is just the way it works in an open market environment.

Still long the summer futures and was too timid about buying more today when they dipped.

Best wishes,

Doc