9/13/18 was up +1.55 and the model projects the component on yesterday's kill will be up between +1.05 and +1.35. The VVVs settled premium to the component by +4.40. The model calculates that the component will need to move up an average of +0.20 per day for the next 21 days to close the "Gap". If we get the kind of a jump in the component today that the model is projecting, that number will really drop.

Even though packers jumped their bids rather aggressively yesterday, they were only able to round up 78.3% of the moving average daily purchases of total hogs and 84.3% on the index hogs. It is being validated day-by-day that we have now seen the "Trough" for the Seasonality cycle. I'm not sure about the Hog Cycle yet but if it is not in my thoughts are that it will not be hit until the March wash-out shows up. I'm expecting the summer futures to remain firm until we see the front months make a dip.

Still HODLing summer futures and buying dips and selling rallies.

Best wishes,

dhm