Based on COT reports, commercials are very close to being net long. This is not a day-trading indicator, but it's usually good for a $10+ rally over 6-12 weeks. If there is a spring wash-out, it will be the funds puking and commercials picking up bargains. This net long condition would be unusual - attached weekly chart has white arrows for the past occurrences and a few "almost" events. The yellow histogram is commercial percentage of Open Interest. Green line is funds and all spec longs.

Commercials have a pretty good feel for pork export business and I suspect they wouldn't be long if they feared a trade war.

Be aware that chart is continuous contract, so prices don't fit with actual highs/lows as traded.