3/6/18 was UP +0.15 to 67.76. The JJJs are now trading discount to the component by -0.43. Packers did not do very well in buying hogs yesterday getting only 80.3% of the moving average daily purchases of index hogs. They fared somewhat more poorly in total hogs getting just 75.9% of the moving average daily purchases.

The six-day moving average carcass weight was steady at 214.70#. That is +2.31# yr/yr. Packer hogs were lighter yesterday by about 1/4# and non-packer were slightly heavier. These numbers have me wondering if packers may be a little thin on hogs and this could explain why they have been finishing their hogs to heavier weights??? I continue to believe that packers want to process heavier hogs to be a bit more efficient.

History and the biology of hog reproduction seems to tell us that there is a fairly strong probability that the price of hogs will firm as we move into spring and summer. ITZ says there may be a March wash-out and the futures are showing it today. The weakness in belly prices yesterday is surely not constructive for hog prices.

I'm still flat the JJJs but am thinking about probing the long side but I have plenty of calendar spreads to keep me on my toes but not awake at nights. I like my sleep too much tolet that happen!

Best wishes,

dhm