Re: DH, I've been scouting-----

the potential parameters for entry on that spread. I don't know what will prove to be the magic number for trigger pulling but a few weeks ago I did arrive at a target window based on multiple scenarios for each individual market. As you know, I leg into this spread with the idea of treating each market individually and at some point my qualifying and satisfactory spread will be in place. At that point, I lock it down in my mind/on my daily run, as a spread that I accidentally--intentionally walked into. Then I wait for the Paint to Dry. The target window I have is the 35-40 dollar spread.

I usually end up selling June cattle tendencies to top by the end of Feb/early March, before I buy June hogs due to the consistent March Washout for hogs. I am now confronted with the hog market disconnect with June hogs into my 78-80 buy target that I was expecting to happen in March. Since this is a cycle low rotation I have to make a choice either today or Monday to buy June hogs here at the 78-79 targeted area. I have had my target area for some time to sell June cattle at the 120.00 area but knew that 118 could be a brick wall stopper. Whether right or wrong, I choose to be patient until the first days of March to get anxious about selling the June cattle. Anyway my 40 dollar spread target seems to be shaping up-----if June cattle can get back up to 118-119. I have no other choice but to pull the trigger to buy June hogs here today and wait for June cattle to pop back up. The cattle market still has a week to go to hit the cycle rotation low and I don't have any hedgers in the game yet----so I'm getting a little nervous.

Messages In This Thread

The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -
Re: April hogs should be ready-----
Thanks for your thoughts, ITZ. I have - - -
Re: DH, I've been scouting-----
Thanks, ITZ. Before I read your post, I - - -