4/17/17 was UP +$0.44 AND THE model projects the component on yesterday's kill will drop between -0.10 and -0.40. This is the first UP-TIC we have had in the Purchase Index for several weeks. Perhaps the long awaited spring decline in the kill is about to begin. With the KKKs trading premium to the component by +5.50, it is going to take some fancy bidding by the packers to keep the KKKs from slipping a little. The same thing holds for the MMMs since they are premium to the component by 9.53.

The hog pricing model will not be very effective in projecting a cash settlement index for a while so I am going to be relying on the calendar spreads to carry me for a while now unless I hit a luck scalp or two.

Best wishes,

dhm