great big guessing game trying to figure out the spring decline in hogs supplies will hit and how severe the decline will be. It is true that the Saturday kill was down, but the weekly kill was still in good shape. Retailers now have their cases full for the Easter weekend and it is six-weeks before the Memorial Day barbecue season hits. From the after noon reports on Friday, the model projects that the Purchase Index will make the largest drop it has posted since I don't know when. Based on this, the data does not seem to be saying there will be a decline in the kill rate in time to save the JJJs from dipping further.

To be sure, I'm looking for a spring/summer decline. I have loaded my boat with too many long Q/V spreads that are causing me a bunch of grief. I'm thinking that a summer rally may get me out of trouble there.

Best wishes,

dhm