4/6/17 was down -$0.53 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will slide down by something like -0.35 to -0.65. The down trend is intact and looking at the weakness of the cutouts yesterday and the high kill rate so far this week, I see nothing that is poised to stop this "Snow Ball" that is rolling down hill. It just might gain momentum at some point in its journey.

With their lower bid, packers purchased 82.% of the moving average daily purchases. That is on the low side. I hope it is not suggesting that producers are becoming reluctant sellers. I think they need to keep very current in their shipments.

I see I forgot to post the component change for yesterday. It was down -0.50 to 66.35. That is right in line with yesterday's projection. The JJJs are now trading discount to the component by -2.88. I will update the projected cash settlement for the JJJs when the 201 report comes out.

I'm still short the JJJs but did scalp out of two shorts this morning and will sell them again on a tiny little bounce.

Best wishes,'
dhm