also gives me one surprise after another. I often think about Long Bear's statement, "In the hog market you can always expect the unexpected!"
I approach the hog market three ways:
1. Since I generally don't have a clue what the market is going to do, I scale in and out of the calendar spread. My initial entry point is usually S.W.A.G. number and the I scale up and down from there. Today I tried to make my first entry into the V/Z spread and I was trying to buy the spread at 3.925. Sometimes I really get hung-out on the spreads.
2. I scalp the front month using crude technical set-ups. Generally these trades don't do much for me except give me some excitement during the day.
3. When the front month is within three or so weeks of expiration, I rely heavily on the Hog Pricing Model to give me a directional bias that is mostly fundamentally driven. This fundamental analysis generally gives me the besYear there. I have fond memories of the five years we lived in St. Louis.
Best wishes,
dhm