MURICO.com Forum

Re: Well Dewey, at least you didn't-----

act on your hallucinations----I did. Wed I let Greed talk me into adding 2 more shorts to hold @ 44.40 and a 3rd @ 44.30, breaking my 1 at a time rule, for holding for the next leg down. I set myself up for hallucination failure-----I did have a well thought out plan which was to be a correct plan. A plan is only good if I'm disciplined to stick to the PLAN. Half way through the day yesterday, the hallucinations set in and that's when I started overthinking my PLAN. Thinking I had made my move 1.00-1.50 too soon and not wanting to break my Damage Control Rule the overthinking turned rampant as I made small deposits on all 3 and feeling proud of myself for saving myself from 1,2, or 3 donations today as my closing hallucinations yesterday were screaming 45.25 or higher for Friday.

My PLAN for today was to set my south end lines @ 43.60 in case my hallucinations were proven to be just that. W-e-l-l. I didn't count on the corn market demanding total focus today and I didn't have time to even think about my PLAN and fishing lines that were left in the closet. I've been waiting for 2 months for this buy signal trigger in the corn market and a good share of my producers were losing trust in my mass of long positions they have on, based on my advice to reown some of their sold bushels. I was finally vindicated today and can feel good for at least two days with those thoughts of vindication. It played a part in my poor choices for my hog trades, that's my justification for being an idiot but doesn't change the fact that I was an idiot. Oh well, aint the first or last time that hallucinations get the best of me. The only reason I act on them, is because sometimes they do become reality.

My negative price outlook has not changed but or I should emphasize the BUT my downside targets have changed to the 30.00-32.00 area. My reasoning, 1st leg down for Dec hogs was $13.00, second leg down was 16-17 dollars, there should be a 3rd leg down to at least match the 1st leg. If 44.92 is the top of the next leg down------the 32.00 area comes into play. I also have a mass of potential projected support lines waiting to catch the falling price at the 32-34 area at the mid Nov time frame. I can come up with multiple technical projections pointing to the 30-32 area in the mid to late Nov time frame, which all concur for a likely 3rd leg down of $13.00 for precision price movement and that's not counting any overkill that can show up with record production that may overrun the kill capacity. Overkill at the top generally balances out with overkill at the bottom. The markets are ADDICTED to BALANCE.

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The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill for -
Re: The CME Lean Hog Index component on the kill f
Re: Well Dewey, at least you didn't-----
Well, Dewey and ITZ, I hope group-think - -