for the 9 year Death Cycle low, is the 47.00-50.00 area. That is the area I've been talking to producers about. How quickly or which month gets the honors is what I struggle with. Typically Dec gets the honors. This first stage has been a month early, quick, and very aggressive. A BIG SURPRISE for most. I even thought I would get a few more clues to give me time to get more producers hedged. The weekly chart triggered my first sell signal the week of July 18th with the gap below 78.62. The Monthly chart triggers a sell signal with a break below 66.32. A monthly sell signal is a major directional indicator but that sell signal is not confirmed until the monthly close is below 66.32.

It is obvious that Oct will probably be triggering that monthly sell signal in 3 days as it becomes front month unless it can catch a BIG round of profit taking by Fridays close. What happens next week with a BIG GAP of 6-8 dollars on the weekly chart but also a major sell signal confirmed but cash $10 premium to the board. Is that premium justified? Does Oct find reason to produce a $10 rally to fill the gap? Does panic set in with down momentum in control and go into quick early OVERKILL to take it to the bottom targets for a very early Death Cycle August low?

I sure wish I had the answers or a crystal ball. I do know one thing-----momentum is down and Oct needs to get a daily close above 61.85 to confirm a buy signal for me. That would open the door for the next Brick Wall @ 64.70 that daily closes are needed for Oct to reclaim UPWARD momentum. Not impossible since the hog market has no problem pulling off a $10 reversal out of the blue but with record production that is likely to increase substantially in coming months, not very probable.

I fully expected this to happen but not this early. I wasn't able to take full advantage of it. The market just does not like to fully cooperate with my plans.