Cash hog prices are expected to continue eroding as supplies out strip demand. The weekly kill is projected to be 2.226 million hogs, up 1.5% from last week but just slightly higher than last year. The cutout was up .14 at $77.09. There is nothing constructive to report in the product. Pork exports during June, released yesterday, were up 4% compared to June of last year. Trade with our largest customer, Mexico, was off by 14%. Next in line is Japan (up 1%) and Canada (up 10%). Trade with China was up substantially from last year but down sharply from the previous month. The monthly data is “ok” but the action in the product in late July and the top in futures in late June is all suggestive that exports were down hard in July. Oct hogs staged a nice bounce yesterday which, in our opinion, was a selling opportunity. We’re not actually selling futures but instead actively purchasing Oct puts. We’re afraid there’s substantial downside risk yet in lean hog futures.

DH, thanks for all your continuing info & stats, it is very much appreciated! Dennis is very negative the hog market! He believes Oct may go to 50.00, I hope he is wrong! I still have a few Aug longs to get out of but have orders in on all of them.

I have noticed over the years that when everyone gets the same and "for sure" idea on a market - it turns! However this time might be different!

Dewey