post. Today the USDA revised downward last week's kill. That cuts the kill for the past three weeks to -0.92% below the same period last year. Not only that but the 6-day moving average weight is -1.87#. That's a fair amount less pork than last year AND a fair amount less than inferred from the H&P report.

Also cold storage report showed less pork in storage.

I don't think for a minute that when the USDA does their hog count that the producers weigh each hog and carefully categorize them into the weight classes for the report; rather it is something like, "Well there are probably something like XXX hogs that might weight over 180# and that next pen is growing well, they probably weight 150# by now, I think."

And we dumb traders hang our hats on the USDA numbers and run with them.

It isn't often that a discrepancy shows up so soon but it surely seems to be coming out this time.

The H&P reports have been quite good lately so I'm thinking that the reported number of market hogs may be quite good at +1.9% year over year. But if they are not in the 180# and up category, where are they and how soon will they keep their appointments with the packing plants?

I'm going to buy a couple of Q/V calendar spreads and see how badly the market slaps me around.

Best wishes,

dhm