8/25/14 was down -$1.10 and the model projects that the CME Index component on the 8/25/14 kill will drop between -1.20 and -1.50.

The VVVs are trading at a discount of 9.13 to the CME index component.

Packers made a strong purchase yesterday at 119.6% of the moving average purchases. Producers seemed to be willing sellers with packers bidding lower.

Since 6/1/04 the kill rate has been about 2.78% lower than projected from the last H&P report. Either producers are behind in their shipment or the USDA over-reported the number of hogs. The low kill rate has continued for so long that I am beginning to think that perhaps the producers don't have as many hogs as the USDA reported although the kill was a bit stronger yesterday and packers got a strong purchase yesterday.

.The CME Index has been on a strong down trend but it will end and I don't know when.

Best wishes,

dhm