running out of time. That bias being a retest of 68.00 support for April hogs but I only have until Friday to trade it. Monday I shift my focus to the June contract which I've been dabbling with trying to jockey positions for my annual cattle/hog spread that has been a slippery one to get convicted positions put on. I made a 1.25 donation awhile back with an attempt to get my short cattle leg on. I've had a correction target order working @ 80.20 for the long leg on June hogs for over 2 weeks. I was a little surprised that the market treated me so well and didn't even threaten my damage control while I was away. Maybe I should go to Atlanta every week!

I'm back in Nebraska and the Prime Directive talked me into keeping what I have-----maybe it's one of those stubborn hairs growing but I still favor April hogs having a late retest of 68.00 which could take June back to retest 80.00, I decided to keep the 2.50 in the BANK of ITZ. I'm a little baffled with the market ignoring the bearish aspects of the report which say to me we have record numbers of all hogs and pigs-------the same situation the first quarter of the year in 2007 and also in 1998. Both years produced massive selloffs for the 9 year cycle low in the 4th quarter. I expect no different for this 9 year cycle low that is DUE to ARRIVE in 2016. The 9 year lows tend to be precise and tend to have 30-35 dollar drops off of exuberant trade thoughts for the seasonal spring rallies. Best case scenario for the fall market FALL, would be a retest of last years lows. Worst case scenario could be talking the 45-47 area. There is always positive exuberant perception before the slide begins to set in.

There is no logical reasoning for a 4th quarter setback to 50.00 or lower but that is the first element needed to make it possible. If May and June fail to get a sustained move above the 85.50 area, that would clearly signal we have a retest of the 2015 lows. For now the seasonals should keep any sizable down drafts out of the picture. The seasonal highs can be put in by mid to late May but trade the $5 sideways range for 2 months before the trap door opens up.