11/17/15 was down -$0.31 and the model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will shed between -0.45 and -0.75. I keep watching the data thinking anytime this downtrend is coming to an end or at least slowing but it just keeps going and going and going. Bellies took a terrible beating yesterday and they make up a significant percentage of the carcass. This does not bode well for the hog market. Packers need to move the product to have the where-with to bid higher.

Packers did not make a very large purchase yesterday - just 83.8% of the moving average daily purchases. I cannot tell whether packers wanted fewer hogs or whether producers were not selling very willing sellers. With carcass weights moving down, it just might be that producers are getting current in their shipments and are not feeling as much pressure to move their hogs out.

My assessment of the hog market is that there seems to be little data to suggest we are at the bottom of the trough so I sold the ZZZs on the spike this morning. Early indications are that I was too timid and should have sold more - -

But -

"There are old traders and there are bold traders but there are no old, bold traders."

If one stays at this business long enough, the market teaches to not throw caution to the wind.

I have plenty of spreads to keep life interesting. This morning I am trying to sell the Z/Gs at -1.70. I "Gotter dun" yesterday at that price and before the day ended the profit target was in the bank.

Best wishes,

dhm