thought provoking post. As I ran the numbers from Friday, the model is projecting that there is more coming for the bears between now and Thanksgiving. From the afternoon numbers the model is projecting that the component on Friday's kill will be down between -1.20 and -1.50. My boat is fairly well loaded but it is all spread. I didn't have enough "Irrational Exuberance" to go into the weekend short the ZZZs. I can plainly see now that I should have. In fact I should have been short for sometime now.

I have a friend who quotes his grandmother as saying, "If our foresight were as good as our hind sight we would be a damned sight better off!"

And so it is.

I manage a small commodity pool consisting of myself and a small group of investors. I am not seeking to "Shoot the Moon" but to show consistent monthly gains of 2.0% per month. The pool is nearing its 5-year mark and during that time it has gained an average of 2.43% per month. That is good enough to cause most of the investors to keep hanging around but few have chosen to add to their investment even though the performance is much better than either the Dow 30 or the S&P 500.

I suppose this is a sign of a deficiency in our marketing activity which has been essentially ZERO. Now that we are nearing the 5-year track record, perhaps it is time to go back to "Marketing School".

Best wishes,

dhm