but not very likely since there is a vast difference in the fundamental and cycle conditions. 2009 was the retest of the 9 yr cycle low of 2007 which managed to be forced lower because of too much pork and poor demand because of the swine flu scare. The very consistent pattern for Aug hogs 7 of the last 10 years is a 3-5 dollar upswing starting between July 28th and Aug 1. In 2008 it was a +12 dollar explosion. 2010 and 2012 Aug hogs put in a 6-8 dollar rally into Aug 1st then took it back but expired at midrange.

I continue to believe this was an anticipation selloff and the cycles that enter the picture Thursday and Friday will trigger a reversal to give a minimal $5 rally over the next 2 weeks. Oct hogs may or may not get any kind of upward movement until it is front month and has to decide if it has been discounted too much depending on cash and hog numbers at the time.