That’s strange. Maybe there’s confusion between who takes the reports (USDA, AASV or NAHLN … and I’ve never heard of NAHLN). The charts do show a huge drop in cases since we got into warm weather, but there appear to be reports as recently as July 5.
https://www.aasv.org/Resources/PEDv/PEDvWhatsNew.php
Your other points about severity of impact and market reaction are interesting cuz we’re gonna find out soon! The LAUNCH in February was anticipatory and we will see the reality of supply over the next 60 days. Let’s hope demand hangs in there.
The 15% loss number makes sense if you spin it like this …
1) In an environment of record profitability and declining corn prices last year, producers might reasonably attempt to expand by 8-10%.
2) The 8-10% expansion never happens and ON TOP OF THAT, we get a 3-6% decline according to USDA numbers.
Transition from Q to V will be volatile.