3/12/15 was down -$0.62 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 3/12/15 kill will drop between -0.25 and -0.55. The down trend is continuing.

Packers made only a fair purchase yesterday at 88.2% of the moving average daily purchases. I don't think that the number of hogs purchased indicates a tightening of supplies because the 6-day moving average carcass weights are firm and the number of hogs scheduled is running quite a bit ahead of where we were last year at this time.

We are probably in for a fair amount of volatility since we are in the expansion phase of the hog cycle and this may keep the technical traders probing for a bottom. Looking at packers margins and the weakness of the demand as reflected in the carcass prices, the bottom may be a ways off if the current high kill rate is a manifestation of the degree of expansion that is taking place. We may get an additional clue about expansion when the next H&P report comes out later this month.

I am short ( but just mildly) and would like to sell more. I'm afraid if I do that some "Big Boys" will come along a run stops and pick my pockets.

So-

I'll try to catch them running stops and sell then. They did a nice job of it yesterday around 2:00 EDT and I missed it.

Best wishes,

dhm