3/9/15 was down -0.29 to 67.06. The JJJs are discounted to the component by -1.28 and the MMMs are premium to the component by +11.32. I continue to like the long J/M spread of which I'm flat. I will be getting back long that spread on a dip or may leg into it.

Packers have 10.39% more hogs scheduled than they had on this date last year. The kill so far this week is running +5.62% higher than one-year ago. Last week it was +7.24% more than the same week last year. The number of hogs coming to market is somewhat higher than projected from the last H&P report.

Today the 6-day moving average carcass weight dipped to 214.42#. That is only +0.60# year over year. Producers seem to be getting current in their shipments. It seems to me that this liquidation of heavies contributes somewhat to the higher than expected kill rate. I remain convinced, though, that we are in the expansion phase of the hog cycle. I tend to doubt that producers will have the discipline to scale back production until forced to do so by lower prices and we are not there yet.

Best wishes,

dhm