3/9/15 was down $0.69 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index on the 3-9-15 kill will shed between -0.15 to -0.45. It appears that the mild up-trend that hit the Index a week or so ago has now come to an end and the down trend has resumed. Perhaps the down-trend is being driven by high kill numbers and firm carcass weights and weak exports. There are those who think that the strong dollar is a factor dampening exports and it may be more significant than the dock workers problems on the west coast.

Last week's kill was +6.14% over the same week last year and the carcasses are nearly a pound heavier. My view is that this is confirmation that we are in the expansion phase of the hog cycle. Once the expansion phase begins, it has a tendency to continue until low hog prices cause producers to begin the liquidation phase of the hog cycle. We're not there yet.

Best wishes,

dhm