3/6/15 was UP +0.06 AND the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 3/6/15 kill will change in the range of -0.05 to +0.25. On Friday the component was down 0.39 to 67.73.

Packers made a solid purchase on Friday at 109.9% of the moving average daily purchases. Producers seem to be willing sellers and they seem to have plenty of hogs to sell. The kill last week was up 7.24% over the same week last year and packers had 16.12% more hogs scheduled on Friday than they had on the same date one-year ago. The six-day moving average carcass weight Friday was up to 214.79#. That is +0.72# yr/yr.

Both packer hogs and non-packer hogs were heavier but the non-packer hogs tacked on a little more than the packer hogs.

Packer hogs are representing 33.6% of the hogs on a 5-day moving average basis. For quite a while this percentage has tended to be in the 32.4 range. It just might be that packers have expanded a little bit more than the non-packers. It does appear that we are in the expansion phase of the hog cycle. It just might be that the expansion is at least partially the result of controlling the PED virus but more hogs is more hogs regardless of the underlying factors that produced them and the pork generated has to be consumed.

I will sell MMMs if they "Pop" a little.

Best wishes,

dhm