2/25/15 was UP 1.36. The model projects that the component on yesterday's kill will move up between +0.85 and +1.15. Seemingly packers have thrown their wallets out on the table and told the producers, "Take what you want but we must have hogs!" The weak cutouts yesterday has me thinking this firmness we are seeing in the Index may be short lived.

The MMMs are now premium to the index by 20.59. Only once since the Lean Hog futures began trading has the index risen more than 20 point between this date and expiration of the MMMs. On average it has gained 10.73. I'm going to play the odds and stay short the MMMs for a while longer.

With their firmer bids, packers made a fair purchase at 96.1% of the moving average daily purchases.

Best wishes,

dhm