MURICO.com Forum

The CME component on the kill for - - -

2-2-15 was UP +0.13 to 60.46. The MMMs are now premium to the component by 22.34. The component generally does not tack on that much from this date to the expiration of the MMMs. Last year it jumped 28.73. That is the first time it has jumped more than twenty points during that time frame. Last year we had a PED virus induced shortage and that does not seem to be the case this year.

In fact the kill last week was +8.24% yr/yr and on Friday the scheduled number was +20.5% yr/yr. Total meat produced was -1/4%yr/yr but pork production was +9.29% over 2014. The 6-day moving average carcass weight moved up to 215.76# which is +2.17# yr/yr. These numbers don't strike me as being bullish. \

I suppose it is possible that the kill rate could crash shortly and we would see hogs sky-rocket like they did last year. The day-to-day kill and the last H&P report both make it appear that some expansion has take place in the hog numbers.

Best wishes,

dhm