a consistent and valuable tool that for a multitude of reasons has had/still has a precision time frame for playing out the ups and downs on the market roadmap. Other markets are in envy of the cycle precision of the hog market and cycle riders as myself prefer trading the hog market. As we all have learned the hard way, just because we have gained some insight of certain markets, doesn't make it easy or SAFE to play the game. The more we learn, the less we know, seems to be the best way to describe my 20 years of trading. As Long Bear always said, "expect the unexpected".

I compare the markets to viruses that cause so many problems for the hog producers. When a vaccine is made for a virus is similar to me figuring out the dance the market is dancing to and I have successful rounds of nice deposits. Just like the success hog producers have with the vaccine that controls the virus, but only for so long before the virus mutates and is back to causing financial loss with a new strain of the old virus. This happens with the markets when a new dance begins when I'm locked in to the dance that was working so well. Most traders only learn how to do 1 or 2 dances and are lost or get hurt when the music changes or like many go out on the dance floor and try to imitate what everyone else(trend) is doing, just about the time the music is ready to change and they hurt themselves again. My point is, new day--new ball game, new week--new ball game, new year--new ball game. You never know WHEN, the music will change, or the virus will mutate, but it usually happens when your most comfortable or not managing your risk.

The Hog Cycle has gained more surface understanding from the masses knowing profits increase production which seems to be the case at the moment, which in turn has the bulk of the trade focused on the TREES(current short term picture) so it becomes easy to do the dance that the current music is playing. When I take a step back and view the FOREST(long term cyclical picture) weekly/monthly chart up and down cycles, I see a road map of cycle ups and downs that has a distinct timing pattern for each phase of the process as the market spends 9 years of travel between one major cycle low to the next. The cycle always starts at the bottom and spends 4-5 years climbing its way to the top which is usually divided into 3 stages of ascent working 20-30 dollar ranges with sub cycle lows spaced 2-3 years apart. It doesn't just start going up and reach the top without having $20-$30 setbacks. Same way coming back down a $30-$35 drop has been max and will usually exhaust the momentum which brings on at least a 3-6 week $5-$10 bounce.

These ranges of rallies and corrections used to be considered large with a $20 move but since this current cycle began (2007-2009, 9 yr cycle low window) we have seen markets on STEROIDS and not just the hog market. It is not gonna go away. The hog market will have a significant reversal to fuel at least a 20-30 dollar rally on the weekly by the time we get the expiration of June or July. That's only a $10 rally from where they are today. The music is gonna change, we will see significant rallies in the next 3 years, but the TREND is down. The Hog Cycle will now spend 3 years searching for the Hog Cycle low. The LAW of BALANCE addiction will produce a rally back up to the 90.00 balance point before the Hog Cycle low is put in. There's a magnetic force to fill the weekly chart gap at 86.40 to help make that happen. Most trend sub cycle rallies and corrections are complete in 5-7 months a few, very few have taken 8 or 9 months to find the maximum top or bottom. We are currently working on 7 months when Feb expires. My guess is this one will take 9 months since bear markets usually have the April contract retest and sometimes take out the Feb low.

I whole heartily agree that production cannot be turned off like closing an assembly line in a factory, but it can and does get disrupted. The PED virus is under control or has taken a pause but I raised hogs long enough to know they don't just go away for good. It always seemed like they hid long enough to make yourself give a pat on the back to make you think you had it FIGURED OUT(no different than trading) BAM!! your BLIND SIDED, and it's going for your throat. No different than trading. The health issues is probably the factor helping create the 5,7, or 9 month sub cycle swings in the BIG PICTURE hog market cycle and the precision that it trades for those 9 year Hog Cycle lows.

Demand swings is also a factor in the equation for the swing cycles. Usually dominate for the up cycle swings which is part of the reason you cannot measure cycle highs with the precision of the cycle lows. You cannot calculate the predictability factor for demand swings like you can time/price swings. I believe the dock strikes have been a large factor hurting demand which adds force to the down move playing out at this time. We don't have anymore oversupply than we have had during the 2010-2013 timeframe and then a 2 month dip to 65.00 was the only time price dropped below 70.00. The dock strikes will end, pork is now insanely cheap compared to beef, if a health issue disrupts production which will happen, the balance addiction rally kicks in. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the music is gonna change before to long.

I'll keep those fishing lines out there and go about my business------sooner or later I'll get a bite on the north end of the pond. If I keep the focus of Be Prepared and don't get caught napping one of them will be a Big One cause a sizable round of profit taking is inevitable.