2/10/15 was down -0.99 to 64.33. That puts the GGGs at a discount of 3.03 to the component with only three more days of data to produce the cash settlement index. The Hog Pricing Model is projecting that the cash settlement index will be 61.64 with a range of 61.14 to 62.14. When the GGGs dipped earlier today, I bought four @ 61.15. I had more orders dangling below that but the decline halted in front of my orders . I am letting the orders continue to work.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 215.67#. That is still +2.33# year/year. Packer hogs were a bit heavier and non-packer hogs dipped a little. Packer hogs are +3.97# heavier than non-packer hogs.

The data continues to point to this being a part of the expansion phase of the "Hog Cycle". Once the expansion phase begins, it cannot be turned back. Some sows have already farrowed. Others are already bred and will farrow shortly. Some are in the breeding pens.

The usual end to the expansion phase comes when the hog prices become so low that producers become discouraged by low/no profits and begin liquidation of sows.

We are not there yet so there is a fairly high probability that the CME Index has NOT hit the price-trough yet so I am clinging to the short piggies that I have accumulated and will try to make an occasional scalp from the short side. So far I have pulled off four today.

Best wishes,

dhm