to destroy all trading parameters in 12 months, for seasonal price guidelines in place for over 12 years. It all started with a RUMOR that has been proven false as all rumors usually are but the market sure makes everyone BELIEVERS while the rumor builds the FISH STORY. I have to believe the seasonal swings are still in operation but we may have to wait until April expires for this downdraft to build the case that this market can never rally. It doesn't have to go any lower than the potential 60.00 support area. Just failing to bounce more than $5 and beating the bottom $5 range for 30-40 days will have every producer finally convinced again to hedge the bottom out of fear for their fall production.

I also have to believe what ever low we see between now and April 15th will once again produce a seasonal price rally on the weekly charts of a 20-25 dollar rally. The problem as always, is the $15+ premium June hog continue to hold over front month. For arguments sake, if a seasonal low does prove to be the $60 mark, the typical $20-$25 seasonal rally comes in at the 80-85 dollar area for June or July hogs and there is a weekly chart gap at 86.45 that will be filled in 6-12 months. If $60 is proven as a short term low for the expansion phase of the hog cycle(that area should be because the bottom digging low for the 9 year cycle low selloff, is not due until the 2016-2017 time frame) the balancing swings are still playing their addictive swings but with more force than we have ever seen. The balancing swing due to kick in during the next 6-12 months calls for a 38-50% retracement rally which gives us a $27-$36 rally at some point. A buy the fact rally to this 9 month selloff from the 133 high in July would rebalance the weekly chart between 87-96 and still keep the Bear Market search for the 9 year cycle low to happen 2 years from now on schedule as that hog market addiction is still a dominant addiction.

The one problem I struggle with is there is nothing that says this market can't be forced down to my projected 9 year cycle low at $50 in the next 2 months and then rally back to the 85-90 balance point on the weekly and then come back down to dig a new bottom for the 9 year cycle low on schedule. Its a pattern we've never seen before but for arguments sake, last years LAUNCH was a pattern we've never seen before. So to keep the balance addiction functioning the SINK HOLE downdraft can play out likewise. I keep reminding myself that last years overblown explosion extended $30 above the technical BRICK WALL in 2 months time. So this downdraft has every right to open a SINK HOLE $30 below 80-85 just as quickly as last years LAUNCH played out. Certainly out of character with the last 12-13 years of trading parameters that have been the frame work for technical timeframe trading ranges in place that the market always seemed to respect. Last years explosion paid NO RESPECT to resistance, neither did the packers who gave way to panic by paying too much on a RUMOR. Now they will take it back when the demand is in a tailspin because pork can't be shipped because of a dock strike and once again rumors can fly that pork is piling up and rotting on the docks. Yes this downside rumor can dig as deep a hole as the upside rumor exploded last year. Emotion does crazy things and with the markets emotions rule.

I'm stuck between a rock and a hard place cause every time I decide that emotion has a grip on direction and I decide to take part in the emotion effect, the emotion quickly disappears and I get slapped in the face. Danged if I do and danged if I don't. the one thing different with a down draft compared to an explosion, is the fact that the hedgers don't get forced out of their positions like we witnessed with last years up draft when some of the banks put a limit on how much margin money they would continue to provide. With a downdraft there will always be bottom pickers who will set their stops close and the shorts will get nervous and willing profit takers. Fishing strategies will always be the safest and least anxiety filled approach for me. If I catch a BIG ONE it turns into a test to see how long I can keep it on the line.