2/3/15 was down -$0.81 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 2/3/15 kill will drop between -0.50 and 0.80. That is very close to the projection from the report from yesterday afternoon. The weakness in the GGGs has opened the discount of the GGGs to the component to -4.42. And now there are only seven trading days until cash settlement. Of course the Index component is going to take a hit here is a few minutes when the 201 report comes out.

I'm glad I finally woke up and realized that producers are now in the expansion phase of the hog cycle. That enabled me to get short in front of today's weakness. Undoubtedly there is going to be an extended period between now and when hog production hits its crest. That means there is going to be a lot of trading for me to do this year.

I have orders working to sell a Feb cattle/hog spread at 88.475. Earlier today I probably could have sold it for 88.75 but I didn't have my wits about me.

Best wishes,

dhm