2/2/1 at 69.97. That's down the component on yesterday's kill down -0.42 and in line with the projection of down -0.25 to down -0.55. The GGGs are now discounted to the component by -2.47 with eight-days until cash settlement. Obviously I don't know where cash settlement will be but that "Gap" seems reasonable considering the firm down-trend of the CME Index.

The 6-day moving average carcass weight eased to 216.32#. That is +2.93# yr/yr. Producers seem to be a little behind in their shipments and have enough hogs to bump the kill rate up a little in the event they decide to get current. Both packer and non-packer hogs were about a half pound lighter.

The percentage of the kill that is packer hogs is still strong enough to suggest that packers have expanded more than the non-packers. Maybe when they were having trouble finding hogs last year, they decided to fix that problem by expanding. I continue to get the impression from the numbers that both packers and non-packers are in the expansion phase of the hog cycle. If the typical hog cycle is followed, there will be more expansion to come before we hit the crest.

Best wishes,

dhm