they are finding it very difficult to move pork, basically the demand sucks. I always take what the packers tell producers with a grain of salt but these comments don't help my thoughts for the technical picture that makes me want to be a bottom picker near todays low.

The downside technical patterns for April hogs are complete and balanced at 71.00-71.25, so I expect a profit taking bounce back to 73.50-75.00 should be on the menu this week which is the midpoint of this 3 week cycle rotation. The cycle mid point has a tendency to trigger reversals. I'm waiting for a 60 min buy signal to be triggered with a 60 min close above 72.22 which just happened with the 60 min close of 72.52. Now I have to wait for a retest kiss of 72.22 to get filled on my buy order working at 72.25. My damage control stop will go in at 71.50. If I don't get filled in 30 min, I'll scrape the order and see what sets up for tomorrow. Hopefully, bigger fish.

It didn't take long for the market to tell me I should have been aggressive on the 60 min buy signal.

The July 16th high at 97.65 sold off 13.72 to the 83.92 low Aug 14th. The Nov 17th 94.10 high sold off 13.67 to the Dec 17th 80.42 low. Then bounced 4.52 to 84.95 before beginning the next leg lower to 70.00 on Friday for a 14.95 leg that was overdone by $1.22 to keep the balance of the 2 previous selloff legs. Looks like a lot quicker profit taking response than I expected since 73.50 got its kiss sooner than I thought. This opens the door for a 30% retracement of the 14.95 leg at 74.50 and possibly a test of triggering a buy signal that shows up with a daily close above 75.25. My question now is how long will April hogs be trapped in the 71.00-74.00 range before it breaks UP or DOWN.

I'm a believer in the 50% retracement targets for any range the hog market has in place. The first range April hogs have is the $14 down leg that started Dec 30th. It would not be unreasonable to see a $7 rally and still keep the downtrend in place.