1/23/15 was down -$0.51. The model is projecting that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 1-23-15 kill will drop between -0.35 and -0.65. If my numbers are correct (and I think they are) the CME Index has been down every day since 12/8/14 when it topped out at 88.51.

That is a huge losing streak for the producers who were not hedged!

Those who were hedged are thinking, "Man-O-Man! Was I ever smart!"

I tried bottom picking a JJJ last week and I'm thinking, "What a dummy!"

The last H&P report gave us a fair warning that producers had expanded. Some traders listened and some didn't. Now it is beginning to appear that the expansion was/IS even GREATER than the USDA projected. Last week the kill was 4.61% greater than the same week last year and carcasses are still running +1.92# yr/yr.

Packers were able to make a solid purchase on Friday at 123.7% of the moving average daily purchases and this they did with lower bids. Some producers may be getting anxious to get hook space scheduled. Packers already had lots of hogs scheduled on Friday at 16.64% more than they had on the same day last year.

In looking at the global economy, I don't like the way things are shaping up for hog producers.

Best wishes,

dhm