MURICO.com Forum

The final Purchase Index for - - -

1/6/15 was down -$0.49 and the model projects that the CME Lean Hog Index component on the 1-6-15 kill will drop between -0.20 and -0.50. We still have a down trend going and the high kill rate and high scheduled numbers are not holding out a lot of "Hope" that there is a turn-around just yet.

From an historical standpoint, though, there is essentially always a decline in the kill rate as we go into the spring and the smaller fall/winter farrowings begin to come to market.

The firmness in the GGGs has opened their premium over the index to 1.10. I suppose traders are now expecting the index to be bottoming out and they are probably right but the firm kill numbers are not suggesting a rapid rise just yet.

Best wishes,

dhm