since Oct with the hogs and my Luck in the cattle market was great for all of 22. I can guarantee that it will run it's course and I will get an Upper Cut that knocks me to the mat again. That's part of the game, when you get that feeling that every choice will be the correct choice. I just hope I can keep my brain in tact to recognize the early errors with proper damage control, to stay on my feet from the Gut Punch that is always followed by the Knock Out Upper Cut. I've experienced it more times than I care to remember, so I know it's coming. So much Luck is always followed a time of Brain Dead Pain. I can't help but tell myself I should be seasoned enough in a 3rd decade of trading to avoid the Knock Down but for sure avoid the Knock Out. Avoiding the Knock Down is wishful thinking and a round of Brain Dead errors happens a couple times each year. I haven't been Knocked Out since the 2014 hog market explosive launch but that was due to pure stubborn Stupidity.

There's an old saying one of my clients says every time I tell him he didn't plan out his trade with Damage Control. His response is "You can't fix Stupid". I always tell him "Stupid can be Fixed, you just have to look in the mirror and learn from and correct your errors". It usually comes down to refusing to put in the time and work involved to be a better trader and with most it boils down to too much market exposure in too many markets. All of 2021 and most of 2022, probably 75% of my own trades were only in the cattle market because I was convicted on the probability that it was time for The Bull to wake up from his 4 year slumber of bottom basing to Launch the retest of the 2014 high and also expecting new highs before the end of 2023. So that's why my focus needs to stay In The Zone in the cattle market. I can't stay ITZ in the cattle market if I'm throwing my money down on every market that sets up a trade that looks like a winner because most prove to be a fake out if proper research hasn't been done to give credibility to the choice. Several markets taking your money also takes away some of the focus from the market that's cooperating with your process but loss of focus causes emotional choices. Then you really have a problem.

Back to the hog market. Hogs have a mass of complex patterns to deal with which makes it very hard to decide which channel is the dominant channel dictating direction. The one item that I'm using to decide on the channel of relevance, is the extremely negative fundamental situation of hog numbers and lack of demand. We have not seen this situation this negative since 2015 and that was one year before the 9 year cycle low was put in on the weekly and monthly charts. Price was a LOT lower in 2015 so there is potential for a lot more downside than what I'm even expecting. I'm getting a lot of calls from traders believing that hogs should be getting seasonal type rallies soon. I won't deny that an unexpected hole in numbers could show up at any time and the hog market has no problem giving a fakeout 8-10 impulse jump higher. We've seen that happen multiple times the last 6-8 months and direction is still down.

There's a trend in place and it's still a bottom basing trend and we will see a seasonal type of push higher but we don't know if the bottom has been put in or even a solid retest of the 73.55 low in Jan. That's a clue in itself that most don't even realize. The average market watcher just believes This time of year the hog market has broken resistance for the summer months with a clear uptrend in place. The summer months have failed to even think about breaking resistance and still stuck in a downtrend still searching for support low to start the seasonal rallies. Front month April is still trading the weekly nearby chart bottom basing process. Since the Oct and Dec contracts failed to put in the seasonal low, the market is working on the bottom retest part of the game and at the same time is faced with the March Wash Out screaming for a drop to the 78-79 area to complete the bottom retest. With the extreme negative fundamentals I can't rule out a drop all the way down to the 75-77 area or even a double bottom @ 73.55.

I'm telling traders "Don't even think about buying June hogs until they complete the pattern with a retest of 95.00". I expect to sound Stupid because I also expect hogs to get some help from the short lived positive cycle with a 3-4 dollar 2 day jump next week. I've already been told how stupid I am for believing June hogs will fall clear back down to 95.00. I spent two months trying to get traders short the corn market @ the 6.85-6.88 area on the expectation of retesting 6.35 support. I got a lot of laughs and snickers on those efforts, as usual I get the last laugh and vindication from my silly thoughts. I need more time to decide on how high the summer rallies manage to produce. I will be able to calculate a more reliable summer high once I'm confident that the low is in place. With what I have to work with now, I don't think hogs will be able to trigger a rally launch until mid May after the low comes in the first few days of April and then bottom bases for 5-6 weeks. I have a silly feeling the August contract will get the call this year for the summer rally contract to post the weekly nearby high on the charts. Just assuming Aug holds support @ 95.00 I can't expect more than the 105-107 area for the summer high. If they fall below 95.00 in early April, then the hog market really has problems to deal with. Actually we all have serious financial problems to deal with by the end of the year.