The CME component on the kill for - - -

12/12/14 was down -0.93 to 86.90. That is 4.12 over the GGGs. I have learned by sad experience that I cannot tell what the hog market is going to do. For that matter I cannot tell what the crude, gold, silver, corn, beans, orange juice, S&P or T-Bonds will do either.

But that doesn't stop me from trading.

Historically there is a tendency for the Index to bubble up a little following the expiration of the ZZZs. Then it settles back a little until after the first of the year at which point there is a gentle increase in the index until it tends to top-out in front of Memorial Day.

Will it do that this year?


With beef being in short supply there may be some cross-over to pork. There is little to suggest yet that hog expansion has taken place. The kill still seems to be coming in mildly lower than projected from the last H&P report so the PED virus still may be taking its toll on the piglet crop.

In a few weeks we get the next H&P report and that may tell a different story.

The six-day moving average carcass weight firmed to 216.17# which is +2.70# yr/yr. It is not at all unusual for the carcass weight to be up on Mondays. It is worth watching to see if this is an indication that producers are falling behind in their shipments. At this point I think not.

The break in feed costs were not long enough ago for producers to have retained gilts and expanded in order to get more hogs to market by the time the GGGs expire. I still have one long GGG futures hanging around from when the ZZZs expired out of some short Z/G spreads. I might just worry over that one a while longer.

Best wishes,