are a mess, being convicted about support and resistance points is very dangerous. Even long held norms aren't very reliable but that is the norm at the beginning of a new decade. Sooner or later consistency will come back, so we have to watch for the consistent clues telling us what the new rules and parameters for the playing fields this new decade. That may take another year maybe two before the consistent clues have some validity. So prepare to shot yourself in the foot a lot.
I used to live by the 4 week direction trend into early July then prepare for a change of trend about the time the July contract expired. The trend reversal sometimes waited until Aug 1st. Most years hogs rallied into early July and by Aug 1st the reversal Flush Handle was tripped. Once or twice each decade we would get counter seasonal rallies for the 4th quarter instead of the seasonal Washout. The August contract usually started the Launch for those counter seasonal rallies. This year is so screwed up because the price gauge has blown through the top creating a price malfunction. I'm faced with contradictions in every market.
The hog market has been in a downtrend for 4 weeks for this early July potential trend reversal to set up a counter seasonal rally that may not be on the Launching Pad until Aug 1st. The contradiction I'm faced with is that the price level is still well above multi year highs which leaves the door open for a PHASE II FLUSH down to the 85.00 area for Aug Hogs to retag previous multi year highs. Spike referred to that potential target and I believe he's correct but we have no idea what the total market thinks is correct. There is still the possibility of the reversal back up could get a Launch at the time August takes over as front month. If Aug hogs break 107.20 it has Launched and on its way to 112.00 and possibly back to 120.00. The question I'm tormented with is how long will hogs trade sideways before direction hits the Launch Button or trips the Flush Handle again? There are 2 choices why do I make it so hard.