12/9/14 was down -$0.23 and the model projects that the change in the CME Index component on the 12-9-14 kill will be in the range of +0.10 to -0.20. That is mostly unchanged.

Historically there is a mild tendency for the Index to rally about the time that the ZZZs go to cash settlement. I think this is mostly driven by pre-holiday demand as retailers fill their cases for the holidays. The supply of market ready hogs does not seem to be burdensome, so there is a good chance that will happen again this year.

So-

The question becomes, "Will this demand surge and firm Index (If it happens) be enough to move the GGGs up?

My guess is that it will but I'm not betting on a surge to the moon but enough to let the ZZZs expire from the short Z/G spread and run with a bunch of naked long GGGs for a week or so.

It looks like the rally in the Feb Cattle/Hog spread may have over-done it a little yesterday. If it dips a little more I have one that will give me a few tics. I may just dump it and head for the bank since I have two.

Best wishes,

dhm