The CME component on the kill for - - -

8612/8/14 was up 0.11 to 88.41. That puts the CME INDEX component premium to the ZZZs by 1.59. The fundamentals seem to be saying that the supply of hogs is a bit tight and there is a good chance that packers will need to keep their bids firm beyond the ZZZs going to cash settlement.

I guess I will have to wait for the H&P report to get any data that will give us a clue relative to the supply of market hogs by the time the GGGs go to cash settlement. Looking at the weakness in the GGGs, it appears that traders are of the opinion that the supply of market ready hogs will balloon-up a little by the time the GGG pigs die.

Sometimes "The Market" is right and sometimes it is wrong.

My data seems to indicate that generally there is a decline in the kill rate beginning a week or two after the new year. That gives enough time for it to be reflected in the price packers have to pay to get hogs before the GGGs die. When the ZZZs go to cash settlement Friday I may be left with a boat-load of long GGGs that I will have to w-w-w-worrrrry over.

The six-day moving average carcass weight eased to 215.99#. That is +2.66+ yr/Yr. Both packer and non-packer hogs got lighter by more than a half-o-pound.

Nothing there to suggest an abundance of hogs!

Best wishes,