. Year-to-date hog slaughter is down over 4%. How could anyone project market hogs at 100% of last year? Talk about head in the sand.

Recommend holding all positions dearly. We’re long Apr hogs from 8650, long a host of Apr calls, long a host of June calls and long Oct and Dec calls. I’ve pulled all upside targets. April hogs may have another $10 rally before expiration in the middle of April. The futures market is not in tune with the “real” situation in China either. I’m expecting a large purchase announcement by the Chinese as they work to secure pork. China will get theirs. They always do. Price is not a factor.

The trade estimates for the hog & pig are listed below. None of these estimates are even close to what’s actually happening in the industry…IMO. This report is obsolete before it’s even been released.

Ave range
All hogs & pigs 100% 98.5-101.3
Kept for breeding 99% 97.4-100.4
Kept for market 100% 98.4-101.6
Dec/Feb pig crop 100.7 98.9-102.4
Dec/Feb pigs/litter 100.1 98.8-100.9
Dec/Feb farrowings 100.5 99.1-101.9
Mar/May farrow ints 99.2 97.7-100.7
Jun/Aug farrrow ints 99.2 98.2-100.6

Nitetime, above is some of what I just received from my broker.

I got out of all my april but I have several June, Oct & Dec., probably too many with the report on Thur! I find it strange that estimates show 100% when the actual slaughter is not showing that to be true! If we have weakness in hogs tomorrow or Thursday I will be tempted to buy some more!!

Dewey